Fri, 29 Mar 2024 12:52:58 ESTEconomy.com from Moody's Analyticshttp://www.economy.com/dismal/World: Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession https://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/096B5978-23E4-4A91-A3EE-5BC2EEBBBF23Fri, 29 Mar 2024 00:00:00 ESTJapan: Industrial Productionhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/36CABD9C-20FB-4097-B2AC-55CFB2A6FEF6Japan’s seasonally adjusted industrial production index ticked down 0.1% m/m in February, following a revised 6.7% drop in January. Relative to our and consensus expectations for a small increase, the renewed decline is a disappointment. Production of motor vehicles, machinery, and vehicles other than cars fell in February. Output of chemicals and certain fabricated materials rose. Adding to the disappointing reading, industry forecasts for March and April point to a lacklustre recovery in the months ahead. The poor reading adds to a series of dreadful releases which will make it hard for the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the months ahead. All up, the outlook for Japan’s economy looks incredibly fragile.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 19:50:00 ESTJapan: Employment Situationhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/EA283318-B2C1-42A3-BD6F-06BBAD0227FBJapan’s unemployment rate increased to 2.6% in February from 2.4% in January. We had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 2.5%, while consensus forecasts pointed to a stable reading. Part of the uptick reflects improved workforce participation. Still, labour market conditions are wobbly. With slow exports adding to weak domestic demand, employment conditions will stay fragile in the months to come.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 19:30:00 ESTSouth Korea: Industrial Productionhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/1B8E776A-3505-4154-A229-269C23E7A88FIn February, South Korean industrial production rose 4.8% relative to a year earlier. The increase captures production across manufacturing, mining, electricity and gas. February’s increase marks a deceleration from January’s 12.9% annual growth but nevertheless signals that South Korean goods producers were on solid ground at the start of 2024. Thu, 28 Mar 2024 19:00:00 ESTSouth Korea: Retail Saleshttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/E9853DB7-0DF6-4C64-8947-9B0E90917246South Korean retail sales fell 3.1% m/m in February, contrary to our expectation of a 0.3% gain. January’s result was revised up, however, from 0.8% to 1%. Nondurable goods fell in February over the month by 4.8%. Durable goods also fell. Semidurable goods were the most resilient with sales rising 2.4% m/m. Retail sales not-in-stores rose 5.8% m/m and convenience store sales rose by 2.8%. Pulling down the overall figure were significant declines in department stores, large discount stores, and duty-free shops. Although recent figures have been bumpy, and seasonal adjustment is difficult around the annual shift of the Lunar New Year holidays, we expect retail sales to gradually improve through 2024. Thu, 28 Mar 2024 19:00:00 ESTThailand: Industrial Productionhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/CF62252F-28D2-4705-B826-E6F6ED7E59CCThailand’s industrial production fell 2.8% year on year in February, building on a 2.9% drop in January. Our and consensus expectations were for a larger fall. On a seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production rose 2.8% month on month. Slow global demand and weakness in key export markets such as Japan and China will weigh on Thailand’s industrial production index, at least through the first half of 2024.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 01:00:00 ESTAustralia: Retail Saleshttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/3A8C4905-6B40-4066-BF94-B8015D1A3257Retail sales in Australia grew 0.3% month on month in February, down from 1.1% in January. The prior result was flattered by changing spending patterns causing choppiness in seasonally adjusted data. Looking to the trend data, retail sales grew just 0.1% from January.Wed, 27 Mar 2024 20:30:00 ESTAustralia: Consumer Price Indexhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/5A06A2C8-04EB-435C-A465-8046025E853FAustralian headline inflation held steady at 3.4% y/y in February, equalling the December and January prints. The result bettered the market expectations for a modest rise. Stripping out volatile items, underlying inflation eased to 3.9% from 4.1% in January. The latest print reinforces our expectation that rate cuts will start in September. Tue, 26 Mar 2024 20:30:00 ESTHong Kong SAR (China): Foreign Tradehttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/959446C4-A938-40A9-80C5-EE65681EAB9EHong Kong’s merchandise trade deficit for February came in at HKD41.7 billion after January's surprise surplus of HKD3.6 billion. Exports declined 0.8% in year-on-year terms and imports fell 1.8%. Trade over the first two months of 2024 have been volatile due to the shift in the timing of Lunar New Year holiday season. The trade picture for the opening two months of the year look more stabilised with February’s readings. We remain optimistic that trade growth will accelerate as interest rates begin to fall across key markets in the U.S. and Europe in the second half of 2024.Tue, 26 Mar 2024 04:30:00 ESTSingapore: Industrial Productionhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/74A13940-90D3-4176-9087-56F0F46CD560Singaporean industrial production was surprisingly strong in February, climbing 3.8% year on year and a remarkable 14.2% in seasonally adjusted terms from January. These results far exceeded our and market expectations. The volatile biomedical sector was the main source of the increase, followed by transport engineering. Excluding biomedical manufacturing, output increased 1.4% y/y. The key electronics sector grew a moderate 2.6% y/y. Industrial production readings will likely be rocky in the coming months amid a gradual rebound in the tech cycle and uneven global growth.Tue, 26 Mar 2024 01:00:00 ESTSouth Korea: Consumer Sentiment Indexhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/7B6F75FC-D2B6-4BCF-88F4-A824DFDD0D7CSouth Korea's consumer sentiment index slipped to 100.7 in March from 101.9 in February. We expected an increase. All major components fell, with current domestic economic conditions declining the most. Despite the retreat, this is the index’s third straight reading above the neutral threshold of 100. High interest rates continue to subdue domestic demand. We expect consumer spending will improve once the Bank of Korea cuts interest rates, although that is likely to be a few months away.Mon, 25 Mar 2024 17:00:00 ESTWorld: Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidencehttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/703FEB4C-D075-4BD8-BA79-D6009E2CBE16Global business sentiment is stable and consistent with a global economy that is growing just below its potential. More than one-fourth of responses to the nine questions posed in the global business survey are positive, one-fifth are negative, and the remaining responses are neutral. Businesses are meaningfully more upbeat in their responses to the broad questions concerning present business conditions and prospects for business through this summer. They say their biggest problems are burdensome regulation and the cost and availability of labor. Mon, 25 Mar 2024 10:00:00 ESTTaiwan (China): Industrial Productionhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/F273FA3C-1B5B-481E-A220-3E7AA143E5E1Taiwan's industrial production fell 1.1% in February from a year ago, while manufacturing output decreased 1.2% over the same period. However, because of Lunar New Year holiday disruptions impacting production speeds, figures for February displayed some volatility. Overall, the January and February data prints combined rose 7.5% y/y compared with the same period from a year ago. This shows that semiconductor industry is steadily recovering, which is good news for the Taiwanese economy. Mon, 25 Mar 2024 04:00:00 ESTSingapore: Consumer Price Indexhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/956D7195-7895-4C63-9003-BB2ED3879CCDInflation in Singapore rose more than expected in February. Headline inflation rose to 3.4% year on year from 2.9% in January. We expected a 3.2% print, while the consensus forecast was 3.3%. Price increases across the accommodation, services and food categories were larger than in January. Inflation cooled in three key segments: electricity and gas, retail and private transport. Core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private transport, rose to 3.6% from 3.1% in January.Mon, 25 Mar 2024 01:00:00 ESTMalaysia: Consumer Price Indexhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/C1B934AA-8523-443F-96BD-49AF748D8619Inflation heated up in Malaysia in February. The headline CPI rose 1.8% y/y after holding at 1.5% for three straight months. The acceleration was driven by housing, water and utilities, sports and recreation services, as well as transport. Utility prices ticked up due to an adjustment in water tariffs across Peninsular Malaysia. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and other goods subsidised by the government, held at 1.8%. Headline inflation remains relatively moderate, but changes to the implementation of fuel subsidies in the second half of the year could temporarily lift consumer prices.Mon, 25 Mar 2024 00:00:00 EST