Philippines - Industrial Production





Philippines: Industrial Production

Mnemonic IP.IPHL
Unit Vol. Index 2018=100, NSA
Adjustments Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 59.96 %
Data Mar 2021 21.94
Feb 2021 54.79

Series Information

Source Philippine Statistics Authority
Release Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries [IPI, capacity utilization]
Frequency Monthly
Start Date 1/31/2006
End Date 3/31/2021

Philippines: Business

Reference Last Previous Units Frequency
Industrial Production Mar 2021 21.94 54.79 Vol. Index 2018=100, NSA Monthly
Real Change in Inventories 2021 Q1 -59,843 -14,896 Mil. 2018 PHP, NSA Quarterly
Business Confidence 2020 Q4 10.6 -5.3 Index Number, NSA Quarterly
Change in Inventories 2019 Q4 -35,437 -70,157 Mil. PHP, NSA Quarterly
Capacity Utilization 2015 81.8 % Annual

Release Information

For the Philippines, an industrial production index and capacity utilization rate, detailed by PSIC activities. As of 2021, the utilization rate is equal-weighted. They are produced by the "Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (MISSI)."

The value and volume production indexes are called the "VaPI" and "VoPI," respectively.

Active:

  • Classification: PSIC 2009
  • Measurements:
    • Fixed-base volume index relative to 2018 (Vol. Index 2018=100)
    • Value index (Index 2018=100)
  • Adjustment: Not seasonally adjusted (NSA)
  • Native frequency: Monthly
  • Start date: Uniformly 2018m1

Predecessors:

  • Capacity utilization, PSIC 1994 - 2009 to 2020
  • IPI, PSIC 1994, 2000=100 - 2006 to 2020

The source writes:

The MISSI provides timely flash indicators that monitor the performance of growth- oriented industries in the manufacturing sector. There are 20 major sector groupings in the 1994 rebased MISSI, and eight (8) of these are presented by sub-sectors, totaling 34 sub-sectors.

I.1 Historical Background

The earliest version of the MISSI is the SKEM (Survey of Key Enterprises in Manufacturing), which had its inception in 1981 as a project of the National Accounts Staff of National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA). Initially, indicators/indices generated by the SKEM had 1981 as the base period. In 1986, the responsibility for the SKEM was transferred to the Economic Census Division of the National Census and Statistics Office (now the National Statistics Office-NSO). At NSO, the management of the survey was transferred from one different divisions to another when sometime in early 1988 the SKEM was reassigned to the Manufacturing Division. Work on the rebasing the MISSI series to 1985 was completed during this period. The 1986 index series was the first to have 1985 as the base year.

With the restructuring of the NSO in 1997, responsibility of the SKEM was again transferred to the newly created Economic Indices and Indicators Division (EIID). Under its leadership, arrangement for the integration of the SKEM and Department of Trade and Industry's Monthly Industrial Survey (MIS) materialized. The new survey was thus called MISSI and expanded to include additional information on inventory, capacity utilization, etc. Work on the rebasing of the MISSI indicators to 1994 base year also started, but was completed at a few years after.

It was later felt that to effectively monitor the performance of the manufacturing industries, the samples for the Annual Survey of Establishments (ASE) and MISSI for the manufacturing sector be managed by one statistical group. Management again decided in 2001 to return the MISSI to the Industry Statistics Division (Manufacturing Section), which handles the ASE for manufacturing. In that same year, the rebased MISSI series with 1994 as the base year was officially released.

The release of the 1985-based series continued on until December 2001 and was permanently discontinued in 2002.

Objectives

The MISSI is a non-probability sample survey of manufacturing establishments. Selection of sample units for this survey is done purposively so as to include only the large establishments or the so-called industry leaders.

The survey is conducted monthly nationwide using a shuttle questionnaire that provides the respondents with a running account of the previous months' data for one year.

For the year 2004, the survey covered some 521 sample establishments, of which about 62 percent were located in Metro-Manila.

1.4.1 Sector Coverage

There are 20 major sector groupings in the 1994 rebased MISSI, and eight (8) of these are presented by sub-sectors, totaling 34 sub-sectors.

These industry groupings were so selected in conformance to the National Income Accounts groupings. Data on total value of products sold of large manufacturing establishments (average total employment of 10 and over) were used to compute the concentration ratio of each sector/sub-sector. Data on value of products sold were based on the results of the 1994 Census of Establishments (CE).

1.4.3  Sector/Sub-sector Weights

The weight of each sector/sub-sector is equivalent to the proportion of that sector/sub-sector's contribution to value of production of the major sector/sector where it belongs. Data of value of production were derived from the results of the 1994 CE for manufacturing.

I.5. Updating of Sample Establishments

The number of sample manufacturing establishments covered in the MISSI are updated at the start of each survey year in order to make the sample establishments more representative of the industry. This is done by including large establishments that were not previously taken as samples but found in the latest available NSO List of Establishments (LE). Other secondary sources include the list of top 1000 corporations, among others. The lists of ASPBI and QSPBI samples are also sources of obtaining the list of new samples and/or replacements. The basis for replacement or inclusion as new samples is the similarity in industrial activity.

Those sample establishments that have ceased operation and were strike during the previous year's survey were deleted from the survey. Also deleted from the list were establishments found to be "small" in terms of employment size and those considered as entirely delinquent respondents.

1.8.1. Methodology for the Computation of VaPI

1.8.3. Methodology for Computation of VOPI

The VoPI for each industry group is derived indirectly by dividing VaPI by PPI, that is, VoPI = VaPI / PPI x 100. The VoPI for total manufacturing is derived as the weighted VoPI for all industry groups. Refer to Section 2.11 for PPI methodology.

1.8.4. Capacity Utilization Rate

I.9. Imputation

Imputation of missing values in a particular month is resorted to only for cases of non-responses. Data for these non-responding samples are estimated based on established imputation methods, i.e. historical imputation (with or without trend adjustment), etc. Establishments that are reported as on strike, temporarily out of business, or stopped operation are given zero production values for the month/s reported, when verified to be so.

Moody's Analytics supplements

We back-extend the IPI general index, using the predecessor and IMF; the value index to 1981, and volume index to 2006. We seasonally adjust both, using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program.

We have not extended the capacity utilization rate, because the predecessor uses an incompatible methodology.

Preliminary data for a particular month are released 55 days after the reference month as a press release at the NSO website. Reports of establishments not received by NSO on this date are estimated based on established imputation methods. Revisions to the preliminary estimates are done upon receipt of actual reports.

The first revision of the data is one month later. The response rate is higher.

The second revision is two months later. In many cases, the difference between the first and second revisions is minimal.