Switzerland - Business Confidence

Switzerland: Business Confidence

Mnemonic	CIB.ICHE
Unit	Index 2013 to 2022=100, NSA
Adjustments	Not Seasonally Adjusted
	Monthly	0.49 %
Data	Mar 2024	101.47
	Feb 2024	101.97

Series Information

Source	KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Release	KOF Economic Barometer
Frequency	Monthly
Start Date	1/31/1991
End Date	3/31/2024

Switzerland: Business

	Reference	Last	Previous	Units	Frequency
Business Confidence	Mar 2024	101.47	101.97	Index 2013 to 2022=100, NSA	Monthly
Change in Inventories	2023 Q4	-2,210	-3,853	Mil. CHF, CDASA	Quarterly
Industrial Production	2023 Q4	133.8	126.7	Index 2015=100, NSA	Quarterly

Release Information

Description

The KOF Economic Barometer is a composite leading indicator for the Swiss economy. Monthly from 1991.

Properties

Active:

Source name: Vintage 2023
Measurement: Fixed-base index relative to prior 10-year period (Index 2013 to 2022=100)
Adjustment: Not seasonally adjusted (NSA)
Native frequency: Monthly
Start date: 1991m1
Geo coverage: Country

Predecessors:

2012 to 2021=100 - 1991m1 to 2023m8 (archive specifier "_21")
2010 to 2019=100 - 1991m1 to 2022m8 ("_19")
2009 to 2018=100 - 1991m1 to 2020m10 ("_18")
2008 to 2017=100 - 1991m1 to 2019m8 ("_17")
2007 to 2016=100 - 1991m1 to 2018m8 ("_16")
2006 to 2015=100 - 1991m1 to 2017m8 ("_15")
2003 to 2012=100 - 1991m1 to 2016m8 ("_14")
1990m1 to 2014m5 ("_13")

Since the 1970s, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute has published a leading composite indicator, the KOF Economic Barometer, predicting how the Swiss economy should perform in the near future. The methodology was overhauled in 1998, 2006 and 2014.

As of 2019, it is synthesized from over 345 indicator variables selected from a pool of more than 600 candidates. Every year the source may choose to change the composition and weighting of the index. The chosen variables best meet these two criteria: They (a) have an economically plausible influence and (b) have a certain lead time of a relevant strength over the economic trend.

The indicator variables are selected from a ten-year window (interval). The same window is used as the base period for the index, i.e., the average of the series over the window equals 100.

KOF updates the set of underlying indicators and their weights annually after the release of previous year’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

The reference series is the smoothed continuous growth rate of Swiss GDP distributed across the three months of a quarter, based on the official quarterly real GDP statistics, adjusted for the effects of major international sporting events, released by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) in early September.

Attributes of each vintage

Vintage	Date range	Base period	Selected variables	Candidate variables	Mean absolute revision (index points)	Specifier
2023	1991m1 to present	2013 to 2022	324	626	3.6
2022	1991m1 to 2023m8	2012 to 2021	364	608	2.2	`_21`
2021	1991m1 to 2022m8	2010 to 2019	322	609	0.58	`_19`
2020	1991m1 to 2020m10	2009 to 2018	335	610	3.22	`_18`
2019	1991m1 to 2019m8	2008 to 2017	376	>600	3.39	`_17`
2018	1991m1 to 2018m8	2007 to 2016	345	>500	1.05	`_16`
2017	1991m1 to 2017m8	2006 to 2015	273	~500	1.20	`_15`
2016	1991m1 to 2016m8		272	>400	1.39

Revisions

Each year in the autumn, after release of Swiss GDP, the source produces a new vintage of the Barometer. New components are selected, the base period is advanced by one year, and the full history is revised.

Notes

Usually the base period is advanced each year, and KOF's "vintage" name is one year after the last year in the base period. However, Vintages 2020 and 2021 use the same base period (viz., 2010m1 to 2019m12) because of the COVID-19 global pandemic.