United States - Total Employment Non-Ag

The labor market keeps rolling on. Payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, once again besting expectations. Growth was strongest in healthcare, leisure/hospitality, and the public sector, which accounted for more than two-thirds of total gains. Unlike January's report, the impact of revisions to prior months was significant and negative as gains in December and January were revised lower by a combined 167,000. The average gain over the last three months is now 265,000, compared with 289,000 last month—prior to revisions. The household survey was far less optimistic as the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%—highest since January 2022—and employment fell for the fourth time in the last five months.





United States: Total Employment Non-Ag

Mnemonic ET.IUSA
Unit Ths. #, SA
Adjustments Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 0.17 %
Data Feb 2024 157,808
Jan 2024 157,533

Series Information

Source U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Release Employment Situation
Frequency Monthly
Start Date 1/31/1939
End Date 2/29/2024

United States: Labor

Reference Last Previous Units Frequency
Labor Force Feb 2024 167,426 167,276 Ths. #, SA Monthly
Labor Force Employment Feb 2024 160,968 161,152 Ths. #, SA Monthly
Manufacturing Employment Feb 2024 12,964 12,968 Ths. #, SA Monthly
Total Employment Non-Ag Feb 2024 157,808 157,533 Ths. #, SA Monthly
Unemployment Feb 2024 6,458 6,124 Ths. #, SA Monthly
Unemployment Rate Feb 2024 3.9 3.7 %, SA Monthly
Wage & Salaries 2023 Q4 12,051,688 11,917,506 Mil. USD, SAAR Quarterly
Primary Industries Employment Sep 2023 1,364,081 1,349,719 #, NSA Monthly
Agriculture Employment 2016 2,702,095 2,674,749 # Annual

Total Employment Non-Ag Definition

Payroll employment (current employment survey - Total Employment) is a measure of the number of jobs in more than 500 industries (other than farming) and in all states and 255 metropolitan areas. This release is the single most closely watched economic statistic because of its timeliness, accuracy and importance as an indicator of economic activity. Payroll figures are reported each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, along with information on average weekly hours worked and average hourly earnings. The data are based on a survey for the week or payroll period including the 12th of the month. The release also contains an index of aggregate weekly hours worked, which offers an important early indication of production before the quarterly GDP numbers come out. The information on average hourly earnings and average weekly hours is probably the third and fourth most closely followed figures in this release, right behind the nonfarm employment number and the unemployment rate. The BLS now reports earnings and hours for all employees, not just production workers in goods-producing industries and nonsupervisory workers in service-producing industries. Prior to 2010, these measures excluded those working in executive or managerial positions. The BLS also releases a survey of households (current population survey), which includes data on the labor force, the number of people employed, and the number seeking jobs—from which the unemployment rate is derived. The household survey provides a very rich data set with data by race, gender, age, marital status, educational attainment and hours worked, as well as reasons for being out of the labor force.


Release Information

The BLS "Current Employment Statistics" (CES) program, also known as the payroll survey or the establishment survey, is a monthly survey of approximately 140,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 440,000 worksites throughout the United States. From the sample, CES produces and publishes employment, hours, and earnings estimates for the nation, states, and metropolitan areas at detailed industry levels. All national CES employment estimates exclude employees in Puerto Rico. However, the BLS cooperates with both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to collect data and publish employment estimates independent of national estimates.

Series covering all employees’ hours and earnings were officially added by CES on February 5, 2010, with estimates beginning in March 2006. Historically, CES hours and earnings series covered only production and nonsupervisory employees.

Contents

The Current Employment Statistics Program provides employment, hours of work, and earnings information on a national basis. The data include series for total employment, number of women employed, number of production or nonsupervisory workers, average hourly earnings, average weekly hours, average weekly overtime hours in manufacturing industries. The table below lists the prefixes of the available data series. In order to download a series, simply substitute the "E" in the mnemonics on the following pages with the appropriate prefix from the table below. Some series, even at the total employment level, are available only for states or MSAs. Employment of production workers, average weekly earnings, average weekly hours and average hourly earnings are available for the U.S., some states and some MSAs (the availability is the same as is denoted in the following pages). Series listed below that have an asterisk are available at the national level only.

Prefix Description U.S. State MSA
E Total Nonagricultural Employment O O O
EWW Employment of Women O O O
EPW Employment of Production or Nonsupervisory Workers O O O
AWE Average Weekly Earnings of Production Workers O O O
AWH Average Weekly Hours of Production Workers O O O
AHE Average Hourly Earnings of Production Workers O O O
AWO* Average Weekly Overtime Hours of Production Workers O    
WHI* Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours O    
WPI* Index of Aggregate Weekly Payrolls O    
CAHE* Average Hourly Earnings; Base 1982-1984 Dollars O    
CGAWE* Gross Average Weekly Earnings; Base 1982 Dollars O    
AHEXO* Average Hourly Earnings Excluding Overtime O    

Hours of work

  • Industry classification: NAICS 2012
  • Measurement: Billions of hours (Bil. Hrs.)
  • Adjustment: Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate (SAAR)
  • Native frequency: Quarterly
  • Start date: 1964Q1

Net birth-death model

Active:

  • Industry classification: NAICS 2012
  • Measurement: Thousands (Ths. #)
  • Adjustment: Not seasonally adjusted (NSA)
  • Native frequency: Monthly
  • Start dates:
    • 1999m4 for total
    • 2002m4 for industry branches

Predecessors:

  • NAICS, prior to 2019 benchmark, as early as 1999m4 to 2019m12
  • SIC, as early as 2000m4 to 2002m3

Industrial classification

The employment series currently cover the 2012 NAICS industrial classification. All major industry sectors include only privately-owned establishments, except for 90-910000 federal government, 90-920000 state government, and 90-930000 local government. For information on the composition of each industry, see the link below.

Concepts

The CES employment series are estimates of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, not an estimate of employed persons; an individual with two jobs is counted twice by the payroll survey.  The CES employment series excludes employees in agriculture and private households and the self-employed.

For more information, see the Concepts section of Chapter 2 of the BLS Handbook of Methods (see link below); this section includes definitions of the types of data available from the survey. 

Uses

A wide array of public and private policy makers use CES data because it is one of the earliest indicators of economic conditions each month. Major users of CES data include many government agencies and entities, financial markets in the United States and around the world, and other business and academic analysts, researchers, and forecasters

For more information, see the Uses section of Chapter 2 of the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Net Birth-Death Model

The CES estimates are adjusted each month by a statistical model in order to reduce a primary source of non-sampling error. This error is the inability of the sample to capture employment growth generated by new business formations in a timely manner. There is an unavoidable lag between a business opening and its appearance in the sample. These new firm births generate a portion of employment growth each month so non-sampling methods must be used to estimate this growth.

Moody's Analytics supplements

For the net birth-death model, we produce a seasonally adjusted version of the "total nonfarm" series.

Phased revisions of CES

The "Current Employment Statistics (CES)" (the establishment survey, which is reported in the "Employment Situation" news release) is published monthly, in four phases (initial, first revision, second revision, annual benchmark).

Each year in August, the BLS issues an estimate of the benchmark revision that will be made six months hence; this is not itself a revision.

Each year, a benchmark revision is conducted. The sample estimates from the CES are adjusted to universe counts of employment from the QCEW. Benchmarks are principally derived from a separate BLS program that aggregates the employment data reported on unemployment insurance (UI) tax reports that virtually all employers file each quarter with their state employment security agencies. This event is chronicled in Data Buffet News.

The benchmark process revises all SA series and introduces new seasonal factors to be used in subsequent months; these extend back as much as five years. If geographic or industrial classifications are redefined, the revision may impact the entire time series.

To summarize, the phases are:

  • Phase 1: First preliminary estimate (initial estimate or "first print"), approximately three weeks after the reference period. Includes employment, hours, and earnings.
  • Phase 2: Second preliminary estimate (first revision), one month after initial.
  • Phase 3: Third preliinary estimate (second revision), two months after initial.
  • Phase 4: Annual benchmark revision:
    • August: Preliminary estimate
    • February: For U.S.-level data
    • March: For states and metro areas

Seasonal adjustment of CPS

For the "Current Population Survey (CPS)" (the household survey, which is reported in the "Employment Situation" news release), the seasonal factor revision is conducted each year in January and revises the most recent five years of SA data. The event is typically chronicled in Data Buffet News.

Population controls of CPS

Each year in February, new population controls are applied, from the annual update of population estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. Historical data are not revised, consequently, there is a break between December and January, such that the CPS results are not directly comparable. The effect of the new controls is tabulated alongside the January results.

The BLS currently seasonally adjusts one-digit national and state figures and Moody's Analytics adjusts the one-digit MSA figures.

While the Office of Management and Budget defines 342 MSAs (including PMSAs and NECMAs), the BLS only reports data for approximately 275 of these areas.

The BLS790 databank includes redefinitions of geographies and industries as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data in this databank are not altered to reflect new geographic definitions beyond those changes made by the BLS. Data redefined, and fixed for breakpoints, are available to subscribers of the Industry Services Database.

Concurrent with dissimination of April 2020 data for the CES Net-Birth-Death Model, the BLS made changes to the methdology due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The changes made were:

  1. A portion of both reported zeros and returns from zero in the current month from the sample were used in estimation to better account for the fact that business births and deaths will not offset.
  2. urrent sample growth rates were included in the net birth-death forecasting model to better account for the changing relationships between business openings and closings.

Further reading

At the source:

At the source, for CES net birth-death model:

On Data Buffet:

  • 7 Jul 2023, Phillip Thorne - Revisions.